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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and longtime also-rans rising collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against five other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still